State of Russia in the surrounding world. Analytical book 

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Weather dynamic in Russia during last 100 years

Razuvaev V.N.



Numerous climatic perturbations have occurred during XXth century, including Russia. climate is a statistical sum of various states, that the system goes through during decades. In more narrow sense, the climate of a particular area, or local climate, is the average multi-year state of the weather, intrinsic to local physical and geographical conditions.

Starting the middle of XXth century, the global warming process was initiated, heralding the end of so called "small ice age". In Russia, the last decade of the XIXth century was marked by a ubiquitous small decrease in temperature. However, this has not influenced the whole process.

The first half of XXth century was marked by a distinct climate warming in the Arctic, which was mainly pronounced in higher latitudes. At the end of XIX-beginning of XXth century, air temperature in the polar region (north of 60 N) was the lowest for the last 100 years. Starting the second decade of XXth century, the abrupt warming of Arctic has started, reaching its culmination in the beginning of 1940-s. This was the period of fast regress of ice, decline in permafrost, expansion of woods into tundra areas, the time of favorable ice conditions in Arctic seas and immense increase in marine traffic, not seen before. The Northern Seaway became an important transport route. Later on, however, a gradual decrease in temperature was recorded. The Kara Sea has experienced the greatest decrease in temperature within the Soviet Arctic. The average temperature in Kara Sea during 19611965 turned out to be 3 C lower than that recorded during 19411945. The climate in Arctic areas adjacent to Atlantic ocean became more harsh, and severe climatic conditions, that persisted in Arctic at the end of XIX-beginning of XXth century, were reigning again. However, starting middle 60-s, a distinct transition to warming became obvious. During 19651984, a distinct trend in increasing temperature, particularly obvious during winter (December-March), is observed again. A general warming trend has persisted ever since.

In the majority of Russian regions, especially over Siberia, the general increase in temperature, that was most strongly pronounced during the last 3040 years, is apparent. Possibly, this is connected to general warming in the Northern Hemisphere. Temperature trends for terrestrial regions in the Northern Hemisphere are also increasing in general. The largest absolute increases in temperature were recorded in Russia, over astern Siberia. Based on preliminary analysis of current data, the increase in precipitation levels in a number of Russian areas, can also be suggested

The recurrent catastrophic natural phenomena, including climatic ones, draws the attention of scientists around the world. Draughts, floods, strong cyclones, devastating tornadoes and twisters, abrupt changes in temperature these and other natural disastrous events, including technogenic ones, became frequent news in media. The number of natural disasters during the last ten years turned out to be four times greater, economy losses eight times greater, insurance reimbursements 15 times greater than in the 1960-s. Starting 1989, insurance companies in the US paid 75 mld. US dollars, which exceeds all damages for the preceding 40 years. The number of disastrous climatic events is increasing practically everywhere.

The increase in a number of days with anomalous high temperature and intense precipitation causes great disturbance. For example, the number of days with anomalous winter temperature has been increasing over the territory of Russia.

This is particularly obvious for eastern regions of Russia. Usually, anomalous high air temperature is accompanied by the abrupt temperature changes during the short period of time. This can cause the negative impact on human health. At the same time, the increase in a number of days with anomalous temperature provides evidence on changing climate, with the most unpredictable consequences.

We face similar problems with precipitation. The analysis of available time series of daily input of precipitation during summer months showed, that the number of days with intense precipitation is increasing in a number of country's regions. A certain redistribution of precipitation is happening the total sum of atmospheric precipitation during the warm time of year can change insignificantly. At the same time, the major part of precipitation is spent during short rainstorms. For regions with stable agriculture, such unequal precipitation can force to review the current agricultural methods.

Another sign of changing climate, that was discovered recently, is the asymmetry in the changes of daily minimal and maximum temperatures. The lowest air temperature over the most Earth's regions, including Russia, is faster increasing in time comparing to maximum temperature.

One obvious result of this



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