State of Russia in the surrounding world. Analytical book 

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Development of Biosphere and Humankind for last 100 years

Marfenin N.N.



For the last 100 years humankind has increased in numbers in 4 times, energy consumption in 10 times, total product in 17,6 times, mineral resources in 29 times. 85 % of all mineral resources that humans used throughout their history was extracted during XXth century. The total amount of used energy at the end of a century is only 3-4 orders of magnitude lower than solar energy entering the upper atmosphere. At present, ¼ of all land is occupied with agrocenosis and pastures and ¾ of the land not covered by ice turns out to be directly utilized. The world catch of fish has reached its theoretical limits. Changes in global climate of the Earth, intensifying the natural disasters, increasing damages and leading to extinction of many species, are clearly visible. The humans will double in size in XXIth century. Will biosphere withstand such load?

For the last 100 years humans in general have improved their life conditions. Scientific and technological advances have improved the work performance in many times and facilitated the lives of many millions of people. Mechanization, electrification, advances in chemical science and information breakthroughs became part of life of every human being in rich countries.

The World Community has started to help countries, that suffered from natural disasters droughts, floods, earthquakes, fires. But even at ordinary periods, the World Community has provided significant food and medical help to poor countries. Such help decreased infant mortality and increased life expectancy in developing countries. Potent medications, aimed against inflammatory diseases (sulfamid medications, antibiotics) and a new vaccines aimed against infectious diseases were developed in the first half of this century. The natural spreading places of plague, malaria and other diseases, transferred by animals, were eliminated in many areas.

With improving conditions, the birthrate, that was traditionally high in agricultural areas and particular countries, has not started to immediately decrease. The experience of many generations that practiced farming has maintained that large families are more stronger than those with few people. The success of simple farming labor mostly depends on the amount of workers. Even children were working starting the early age. The severe life conditions and epidemics were the cause for ubiquitous high mortality common for primitive life style. The improvement of life conditions during XIXXXth centuries, decreased the mortality, but could not immediately change the established attitudes.

Only decrease in the proportion of rural population with growing urbanization leads to changes in family composition. The amount of people in a family is not that important while living n urban conditions, comparing to life in a rural areas. At the same time, the unit cost of having a child in an urban family is increasing. The abolition of patriarchal society, a decrease in family size, increased individuality and mobility become an inevitable consequences of urban life style. A "demographic transition" from many-child large family, involved in a family business, to few-child family, with all members being relatively independent from each other, is occurring. A decrease in the birth-rate is the expected consequence of urbanization and changes in life style of country's population. In large cities, population growth is mainly occurring due to immigration from other areas.

Since the decrease in birth rate lags behind decrease in mortality, the Earth's population has experienced a real "demographic explosion" which, predictably started in XVIII century, should come to an end during XXI century.

With world population increasing, rich countries getting richer and modest, but ubiquitous increase in the income of poor people, the consumption rate has increased in dozens times. With Earth's population increasing in size less than 4 times for the last 100 years, the total product produced by humans has increased in 17,6 times, and the total use of mineral resources during for the 95 years (from 1900) has increased even more in 29 times. The overall usage of energy of all kinds (with oil equivalent) has increased in 10 times during XX century.

The majority of Earth's population, located in China, India and other developing countries is reasonably claiming the rights for benefits of modern civilization. These people want to live in modern houses, have a better meals, cars and better health care. Economics globalization leads to creation of more works, construction of factories in any country with sufficiently qualified and unassuming workers. This means, that the use of natural resources and accompanying energy use will continue their increase even faster, than the increase in Earth's population. With population size doubling in size during 19902050, the income per capita will increase



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